Data released:
01:00 GMT China Non-manufacturing PMI (Aug) 53.9_54.1
01:30 GMT Australia Current Account Balance (Q2)-9.4B-8.3B-8.7B
01:30 GMT Australia Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Jul)0.1%0.4%0.0%
04:30 GMT Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision2.5%2.5%2.5%
04:30 GMT Australia RBA Rate Statement
05:45 GMT Switzerland Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (Q2)0.5%0.3%0.6%
05:45 GMT Switzerland Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2) 2.5%1.7%1.2%
The dollar marched further upward Tuesday ahead of U.S. manufacturing data due later in the day.
EURO
The European Union’s statistics office will probably confirm tomorrow that gross domestic product in the 17-nation currency bloc expanded 0.3% in the April-June period, ending the longest recession on record, according to the median estimate of economists.
EUR/USD fell as low as $1.3160 and remains under pressure. Below rate may test $1.3060 (Jul 18 lows) and $1.3000 (Jul 15 lows). Initial resistance comes at Asian highs on $1.3200, above - at $1.3250 (yesterday’s hourly highs) and $1.3400 (Aug 23 highs).
POUND
The pound rose for a fifth day versus the euro before a report economists said will show a gauge of U.K. construction increased for a fourth month in August.
The Bank of England’s nine-member Monetary Policy Committee will keep its asset-purchase target at 375 billion pounds on Sept. 5, according to economists. Officials will also hold the main interest rate at a record-low 0.5%.
GBP/USD trades within the 60-points range, below yesterday’s high on $1.5590/00 (initial resistance). Above resistance comes at $1.5640 (Aug 23 high) and $1.5715 (Aug 21 highs). Initial support is near $1.5480 (channel suppoort line from Jul 9), extending to Friday’s lows at $1.5460.
FRANC:
The Swiss currency fell Tuesday.
Data released in the morning showed on a quarterly basis Swiss GDP increased 0.5% in Q2, following a 0.6% rise registered the previous quarter. This result is higher than consensus of +0.3%. Year-over-year GDP rose 2.5% in Q2, up from +1.2 in Q1 and above expectations of 1.7% growth.
USD/CHF rallies and currently holds at session high on Chf0.9370. Resistance remains at Chf0.9395/00 (Aug 15 highs) and Chf0.9480 (Jul 18 highs). Initial support is around Chf0.9340 (Asian lows), below - at Chf0.9300/Chf0.9290 (Friday’s lows) and Chf0.9235 (Aug 28 highs).
YEN
The yen touched a one-month low as signs of economic improvement across the globe damped demand for refuge assets while data from Japan signaled progress in the central bank’s easing efforts.
Japan’s currency slid after data showed the nation’s monetary base expanded by the most in 40 years as Bank of Japan policy makers prepare to meet this week.
The BOJ said today Japan’s monetary base expanded 42% in August from a year earlier, the biggest gain since 1973, to 177 trillion yen ($1.78 trillion). The central bank buys more than 7 trillion yen of Japanese government bonds every month to increase the gauge of the supply of money to 270 trillion yen by the end of 2014 and stoke 2% inflation.
USD/JPY holds near Y99.70 (session high and channel line from Aug 8). Resistance extends up to Y99.80/90 (channel resistance line from Aug 27). Above bulls may lift the rate to Y100.80/85 (Jul 2 and 18 highs). Initial support is around Y99.00 (yesterday’s hourly lows), but back below Y98.70 (earlier broken channel line) may drag the rate down to Y98.00/Y97.90 (Aug 30 lows) and Y97.40 (Aug 29 lows).
COMMODITY CURRENCIES
AUSSIE: The Australian dollar rose after RBA meeting.
The Reserve Bank of Australia left rates unchanged at 2.5% record lows, with the Monetary Policy Statement offering some interesting clues, saying "the Board will continue to assess the outlook and adjust policy as needed", omitting a more aggressive narrative seen in last few months.
While the door to reduce rates further is not closed, the statement sounds not as dovish as one may have expected, yet the value of the Australian Dollar and domestic indicators will continue to determine the future rate setting.
At its meeting today, the Board decided said in Australia the economy has been growing a bit below trend over the past year. This is expected to continue in the near term as the economy adjusts to lower levels of mining investment. The unemployment rate has edged higher. Inflation has been consistent with the medium-term target.
The Australian dollar has depreciated by around 15% since early April, although it remains at a high level. It is possible that the exchange rate will depreciate further over time, which would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy.
At today's meeting, the Board judged that the setting of monetary policy remained appropriate.
AUD/USD broke the resistance of $0.9000 after RBA left the rates unchanged and printed session high on $0.9050. Currently the rate holds at $0.9034 with the pivot support can be found at $0.8950, and $0.8900, while resistance remains at $0.9050.
DATA AHEAD:
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