EUROPEAN session review: Market consolidates

Data released: 

09:00 GMT EMU Trade Balance n.s.a. (Mar) €17.1B €15.5B €13.6B 

09:00 GMT EMU Trade Balance s.a. (Mar) €15.2B €17.3B €15.0B 

The recent softer tone in peripheral stocks and bonds suggests that the rallies in these assets has become tired and this could be pre-empt a less robust tone for the EUR in the week ahead. 

UN human rights monitors find “alarming deterioration” in East Ukraine. They concerned about saftey of Ukraine presidential candidates and over harassment and potential deportation of Crimean citizens who did not apply for Russian citizenship. 

EURO 

Data released showed European Monetary Union Trade Balance came in at €17.1B, above expectations (€15.5B) in March. 

EUR/USD consolidates a bit higher $1.3700. Initial resistance comes at $1.3720/30, then - at $1.3770/80. Support comes at yesterday’s lows on $1.3640 (also Feb 24 lows). Break lower will open the way down to $1.3560 (Feb 12 lows). 

POUND 

Although the economic calendar is practically empty, we still may see some moves based on profit-taking before the weekend. 

GBP/USD recovered after yesterday’s drop to $1.6740 (today’s trend line from Nov 11’2013). Below support comes at $1.6660 (Apr 15 lows). Initial resistance is around $1.6820 (May13 lows). 

YEN 

The yen remains within the recent range. 

USD/JPY holds under Y102.00. Further resisatance is around Y102.75 and Y103.40. Stronger one remains at Y104.30/80. Support comes at Y101.30 (May 15 and Apr 10 lows) and Y100.70 (Feb 7 lows). 

DATA AHEAD 

US data at 12:30 GMT US data include Apr Building Permits and Housing Starts. followed by preliminary May Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

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