EUROPEAN session review: Ukraine stays in focus

Data released: 

09:00 GMT EMU Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Feb) 1.7% 1.5% 1.6% 

09:00 GMT EMU Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Feb) 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 

Ukraine still in focus. EU to speed up work on Russia sanctions as there can be no doubt that events in Eastern Ukraine instigated by Russia.
As for economic news, the best of this week's US economic data will probably come today, when we expect a strong retail sales increase (headline + 1.4% m/m, +0.9% ex-autos, both well above market consensus). 

EURO 

EMU’s Industrial Production banged on expectations, expanding 0.2% inter-month in February (up 0.0% earlier) and 1.7% over the last twelve months, above Jan 1.6% amid median estimate of 1.5% gain. 

EUR/USD stays under $1.3820. Minor support comes at $1.3740 (Apr 8 lows), extending to $1.3670 (Apr 4 lows). Breack above $1.3900 will target $1.3965 (Mar 13 highs). 

POUND 

The pound holds tight as ther is no key economic data on Monday. 

GBP/USD trades below $1.6820. Now losses may widen to $1.6620 and $1.6550 (Apr 4 lows). Above $1.6820 resistance comes at $1.6880 (Nov 15’2009 high). Initial support is around $1.6720 (38.2%). 

YEN 

The yen fell a bit ahead of US data due to come later. 

USD/JPY trades below Y102.00. Initial support comes at Y101.30 (Apr 10 lows). Below support comes at Y100.70 (Feb 7 lows). Closest resistance comes at Y103.40 and around Y104.00. Stronger one remains at Y104.30/80. 

DATA AHEAD 

At 12:30 GMT USA report Mar Retail Sales (0.8% expected vs 0.3% earlier). Retail Sales ex Autos may rise 0.4% versus 0.3%.
At 14:00 GMT US Feb Business Inventories come (median 0.5% after 0.4%).

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