EUROPEAN session review: Market is ready for the weekend

Data released: 

06:00 GMT Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar) 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 

06:00 GMT Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Mar) 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 

06:00 GMT Germany Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) (Mar) 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% 

06:00 GMT Germany Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Mar) 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 

06:00 GMT Germany Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (Mar) -1.7% _ -1.7% 

06:00 GMT Germany Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (Mar) 0.0% _ -0.1% 

09:00 GMT UK CB Leading Economic Index (Feb) 0.4% _ 0.7% 

The dollar remains under pressure before a government report today that economists say will show U.S. producer-price inflation was subdued in March. U.S. producer prices rose 1.1% in March from a year earlier, according to a survey of economists before the Labor Department report today. That compares with a 0.9% increase in February, which matched the lowest level since at least November 2010.
It’s been a week of USD weakness as speculative long positions have been taken out, following last Friday’s Non Farm payrolls data. 

EURO 

According to data released today, German annual inflation rose 1% in March, following 1.2% growth registered the previous month. This result is in line with analysts' forecasts. On a monthly basis German CPI edged up 0.3% in March, down from 0.5% in February, as expected. 

Year-over-year German HICP rose 0.9% in March, following 1% in February. On a monthly basis HICP increased 0.3%, following 0.5% growth. Both results are in line with expectations. 

EUR/USD trades under $1.3900. Breack above will target $1.3965 (Mar 13 highs). Below $1.3830 minor support comes at $1.3740 (Apr 8 lows), extending to $1.3670 (Apr 4 lows). 

POUND 

The pound edged lower from multi-year high posted on Wednesday. 

The British economic calendar is empty today with only the United Kingdom CB Leading Economic Index down to 0.4% in February from previous 0.7%. 

The biggest move of the week came on Tuesday when GBPUSD rose a cent and a half after the IMF raised its growth forecast for the UK for the second time in twelve months and we also learnt that UK manufacturing numbers surprised heavily to the upside. 

GBP/USD fell to $1.6720. Below losses may widen to $1.6620 and $1.6550 (Apr 4 lows). 

Above $1.6820 resistance comes at $1.6880 (Nov 15’2009 high). 

YEN 

US retail sales should restore some confidence in the US recovery, and help underpin US yields and support USD/JPY buying. But with no major events in the week ahead USD/JPY may stay in a relatively narrow range between 101 to 102 level. 

USD/JPY trades below Y102.00. Initial support comes at Y101.30 (Apr 10 lows). Below support comes at Y100.70 (Feb 7 lows). Closest resistance comes at Y103.40 and around Y104.00. Stronger one remains at Y104.30/80. 

DATA AHEAD 

At 12:30 GMT US Producer Price Index is expected.
US Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is due at 13:55 GMT.

Source of information>>

More information>>