Data released:
00:01 GMT UK RICS Housing Price Balance (Oct) 57% 59% 53%
05:00 GMT Japan Consumer Confidence Index (Oct) 41.2 46.3 45.4
07:00 GMT Germany Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (Oct) 1.2% 1.3% 1.6%
07:00 GMT Germany Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Oct) -0.2% -0.2% -0.2%
07:00 GMT Germany Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct) 1.2% 1.2% 1.4%
07:00 GMT Germany Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) (Oct) -0.3% -0.2% 0.0%
07:00 GMT Germany Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (Oct) -2.7% -1.9% -2.2%
07:00 GMT Germany Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (Oct) -1.0% -0.2% 0.7%
09:30 GMT UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct) 0.9% 2.0% 0.8%
09:30 GMT UK Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Oct) 0.1% 0.3% 0.4%
09:30 GMT UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct) 2.2% 2.5% 2.7%
09:30 GMT UK DCLG House Price Index (YoY) (Sep) 3.8% 4.1% 3.8%
09:30 GMT UK PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a (Oct) 0.9% 0.7% 0.8%
09:30 GMT UK PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a (Oct) 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
09:30 GMT UK Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a (Oct) -0.6% -0.7% -1.0%
09:30 GMT UK Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a (Oct) -0.3% 0.1% 0.9%
09:30 GMT UK Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a (Oct) 0.3% 0.0% -0.1%
09:30 GMT UK Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a (Oct) 0.8% 1.0% 1.2%
09:30 GMT UK Retail Price Index (MoM) (Oct) 0.0% 0.4% 0.4%
09:30 GMT UK Retail Price Index (YoY) (Oct) 2.6% 3.0% 3.2%
10:00 GMT UK CB Leading Economic Index (Oct) 1.5% _ 1.2%
The U.S. dollar moved higher Tuesday.
A large slate of Fed presidents were due to speak later Tuesday — namely, the Minneapolis Fed’s Narayana Kocherlakota, the Atlanta Fed’s Dennis Lockhart and the Dallas Fed’s Richard Fisher.
“It will be important to see if they are share their colleagues’ worries about the costs of too much stimulus and feel that the Fed should advance its timetable for tapering, given the recent improvements in data,” BK Asset Management managing director Kathy Lien noted.
EURO
BMO experts look for the Q3 release of GDP for the bloc to at most cap rallies in the EUR, particularly because most of the Q3 data have not pointed to a contraction for the quarter as a whole. The big surprise however would be a flat or negative reading, and they expect such a reading to weigh on Euro Area banks’ shares and the EUR together. However, the likelihood of a flat or negative reading appears somewhat low.
EUR/USD holds a bit lower $1.3400, but still above last week’s lows, printed after the ECB rate cut decision at $1.3290 (strong support). Initial resistance comes at $1.3450 (Nov 7 hourly high), stronger - at $1.3550 (Nov 6 highs). Below $1.3300/90 support comes at $1.3170 (61.8% of $1.2755-$1.3832) and $1.3100 (Sep 6 lows).
POUND
The pound fell for a third day versus the dollar after the inflation figures surprised investors in October, with Core prices rising at an annual pace of ‘only’ 0.9% vs. 2.0% expected while the headline CPI rose 2.2% over the last twelve months, vs. 2.5% forecasted and September’s 2.7%. Further data also showed that consumer prices advanced 0.1% inter-month and House Prices gauged by the DCLG index gained 3.8%, matching the previous print although missing the median at 4.1%.
GBP/USD fell to fresh lows near $1.5850. Support remains at $1.5900 (Nov 4 lows) and $1.5810 (channel support line from Oct 25). Initial resistance comes at $1.6060 (channel line), then - at $1.6115 (last week’s highs) and $1.6200 (phycological levels).
YEN
The yen fell to a two-month low against the dollar. The yen has tumbled 11% this year.
USD/JPY rallied to Y99.80 and retreated a bit. Now strong resistance comes around Y100.60 (Sep 11 highs). Initial support comes at Y98.60, below - at Y97.60 (Thursday’s lows) with a stronger one - on the lower bound of the ex-triangle at Y97.40.
DATA AHEAD
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