понедельник, 28 октября 2013 г.

EUROPEAN session review: markets wait for signals from Fed

Major currency pairs stay in narrow ranges Monday, with some analysts forecasting downside risk for the U.S. dollar amid economic data and a Federal Reserve policy statement. 


EURO 
The euro stays within the narrow range. 

EUR/USD declined to $1.3780, below last week’s highs at $1.3830/40 (initial resistance) with a stronger resistance comes at $1.3915 (channel line from Sep 6). Closest support comes at $1.3740 (Oct 23.lows), then - around $1.3650 (Oct 21 lows) and $1.3575 (channel line). 


POUND 
The pound strengthened toward a four-week high versus the dollar after an industry report showed U.K. house prices increased for a ninth month in October. 
Average home values in England and Wales rose 0.5% this month, matching September’s increase, Hometrack said in a statement. Annual price inflation accelerated to 3.1%, the most since November 2007, according to the London-based property researcher. 

GBP/USD trades near $1.6165. Support comes at $1.6060 (Oct 16 high), then - at $1.5890 (Oct 16 lows) with a break under widens losses to $1.5820 (Sep 24 lows). Above $1.6250/60 (Oct 1 фтв 23 high) resistance is around $1.6340 (Jan 2 highs). 


YEN 
The yen fell vs the dollar. Speaking yesterday, the Bank of Japan deputy governor, Kikuo Iwata reaffirmed commitment to ultra-loose monetary policy as the country continues to fight deflationary pressures. It is expected that the BoJ will announce a continuation of its JPY7 trillion-a-month bond buying programme when it meets on 31 October. Iwata stated that the BoJ would continue bond buying until it reaches its 2% inflation target. 

USD/JPY recovered from the lower bound of the triangle pattern on the daily charts, limited by Y99.25 - Y97.00 (strong resistance and support respectively). Below Y97.00 support comes at Y96.55 (Oct 7 lows) and Y95.80 (Aug 8 lows). Resistance is around recent highs on Y98.40 and then - at Y99.25. 


DATA AHEAD 

US data start at 13:15 GMT with Industrial Production (0.4% vs 0.4%) and continue at 14:00 GMT with US Pending Home Sales. 

At 22:30 GMT RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens will start his speech ahead of 23:50 GMT Japan Retail Trade data.

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