Data released:
01:15 GMT USA Fed's George Speech
06:00 GMT UK Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) (Sep) 5.0% 4.5% 3.5%
06:00 GMT UK GBP Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) (Sep) 0.9% 0.5% 0.7%
06:45 GMT France Consumer Spending (MoM) (Aug) 0.4% -0.5% -0.8%
06:45 GMT France Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2) 0.5% 0.5% -0.2%
07:00 GMT Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator (Sep) 1.53 1.47 1.37
08:30 GMT UK Index of Services (3M/3M) (Jul) 0.5% 0.6% 0.6%
09:00 GMT EMU Economic Sentiment Indicator (Sep) 96.9 96.0 95.2
09:00 GMT EMU Business Climate (Sep) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2
09:00 GMT EMU Consumer Confidence (Sep) -14.9 -14.5 14.9
The dollar holds steady Friday.
Fed’s Kansas Esther George told that “Delaying QE "tapering" may threaten FOMC credibility. Also, added she opposed more stimulus at every Fed meeting this year, while Fed should alter policy to "more normal conditions" as clear job gains warrant reduced bond-buying.” What’s more, she also mentioned that “she would start with a $15 Bln Taper. Sees inflation expectations as "pretty well anchored", while she hopes to see a "diverse" Federal Reserve Board of Governors.” Finally, she said “that there is excessive risk taking in the leveraged lending market. One of few voters discussing the costs of stimulus.”
Morgan Stanley raised its forecasts for most Group of 10 currencies against the dollar, according to a report yesterday. It predicts the euro trade at $1.30 by the end of 2013 from $1.28 previously, while maintaining its estimate of $1.23 by end of next year. The bank sees the pound at $1.58 by Dec. 31 from an earlier estimate of $1.50.
EURO
Market participants are eagerly waiting for President Draghi’s speech, with consensus pointing to a repetition of the dovish tone already seen on Monday.
Data released showed September EMU economic sentiment rose to 96.9 vs 96.0 expected.
EUR/USD consolidates between $1.3470 - $1.3500. Strong resistance comes at $1.3570 (Sep 19 highs), extending to $1.3600 (Feb 5 and 6 highs) with the stronger resistance is near yearly high on $1.3712. Initial support comes at $1.3460 (Wednesday’s low and 23.6% Fibo of the $1.3100 - $1.3570 rise).
POUND
The pound is strengthening across the board after Bank of England's Governor Mr. Carney was saying "he does not see a case for more QE in the UK."
Data released showed on an annual basis UK Nationwide Housing Prices increased 5% in September, up from 3.5% the previous month. Analysts expected less growth of 4.5%.
Month-over-month Nationwide Housing Prices climbed 0.9% in September, following a 0.7% rise in August and above consensus of increasing 0.5%.
GBP/USD holds a bit lower $1.6145 (Sep 18 highs). Below $1.5990 (23.6% Fibo of the $1.5460 - $1.6140 rise and Thursday’s lows) support comes at $1.5890 (Sep 16-18 lows and 38.2%).
YEN
The yen strengthened as investors sought safety amid concern a budget deadlock among U.S. lawmakers will send the nation to the brink of a federal government shutdown.
The U.S. Senate plans to vote today on a spending bill, three days before federal spending authority runs out and a few weeks until the country hits its borrowing limit.
Also the yen advanced, heading for its second weekly gain versus the dollar, after comments by Japan’s Finance Minister Taro Aso damped bets the government will cut corporate taxes, boosting demand for the currency as a haven.
Data released showed core consumer prices rose 0.8% nationwide in August, slightly stronger than economists predicted, although prices in the capital city of Tokyo recorded a weaker-than-expected increase.
The yen has advanced 1% in the past week.
USD/JPY remains under pressure below Y99.00. Support comes at Y98.45 (channel line from Aug 8) and Y97.60/50 (trend lines from Jun 13 and Jul 8 crossing). Minor resistance is near Y99.20 (Tuesday’s high), above - at Friday’s highs on Y99.65. Further rise may extend gains to Y100.00 (Sep 13 highs) and Y100.60 (Sep 11 highs).
DATA AHEAD
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