вторник, 6 августа 2013 г.

ASIA session review (06.08.2013): Dollar gains vs Yen, while Aussie up

Data released (actual, consensus, previous):  
01:30 GMT Australia ANZ Job Advertisements (Jul)  -6.8%   _     -1.6%    
01:30 GMT Australia House Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)  2.4%    1.0%    0.8%    
04:30 GMT Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision  2.50%    2.50%    2.75%        
04:30 GMT Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement                       
05:00 GMT Japan Leading Economic Index (Jun) Preliminar  107.0    108.0    110.7        
05:00 GMT Japan Coincident Index (Jun) Preliminar   105.2    105.1    106.0        
07:00 GMT UK Halifax House Prices (3m/YoY) (Jul)  4.6%    4.3%    3.7%        
07:00 GMT UK Halifax House Prices (MoM) (Jul)  0.9%    0.5%    0.7%    
08:30 GMT UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Jun)  1.2%    0.6%    -2.3%        
08:30 GMT UK Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)   1.1%    0.7%    0.0%        
08:30 GMT UK Manufacturing Production (MoM) (Jun)   1.9%    0.9%    -0.7%    
08:30 GMT UK Manufacturing Production (YoY) (Jun)  2.0%    0.9%    -2.9%   


The dollar advanced for the first time in three days versus the yen amid speculation a recovery in the U.S. economy will prompt the Federal Reserve to withdraw stimulus that tends to debase the U.S. currency.

The dollar has strengthened 5.1% this year, the euro rose 5.7%, while the yen slumped 8.7%.



EURO:
The euro consolidates within the narrow range as European stocks opened slightly lower, following a mixed showing in Asian markets.
Today´s European economic calendar has been light on data, but seen improvements in Italian Industrial output.


EUR/USD consolidates below $1.3300. Initial resistance remains at $1.3340. Above gains will extend to and $1.3400/15 (Jun 18 highs). Below $1.3200 support comes at $1.3160 (Jul 25 lows).


POUND:
The pound rose as high as $1.5390 after UK manufacturing data surprised investors. After the recent improvement in the key Services PMI, the manufacturing and industrial production exceeded the median in June, advancing at an annual rate of 2.0% and 1.2%, respectively, leaving behind May’s contraction. Ahead in the day the NIESR GDP Estimate for the three months ended in July will be in the limelight, ahead of tomorrow’s BoE Quarterly Inflation Report.

Data released earlier showed UK Halifax House Prices grew 0.9% in July, following a 0.7% increase the previous month. Analysts expected less growth of 0.5%.

On an annual basis Halifax House Prices climbed 4.6% in July, after rising 3.7% in June and above consensus of +4.3%.


GBP/USD retreated to $1.5367, a bit lower recent highs on $1.5390 (initial resistance). Below $1.5300 support is around $1.5260 (Monday’s lows) and the key one - at $1.5100 (Aug 2 lows). Above $1.5375 resistance is around $1.5416 (Jul 26 highs) and $1.5480 (Jun 25 highs).


YEN:
The yen erased its earlier gains.


USD/JPY is near Y98.40, above session lows on Y97.80 (initial support). Below losses may widen to Y97.00 and channel line from Jul 7 at Y96.80. Initial resistance comes at Y98.80 (Monday’s hourly high) and Y99.90 (channel line from Jul 7), then - Y100.80 (Jul 19 highs).


COMMODITY CURRENCIES:

AUSSIE: The Reserve Bank of Australia cut its policy interest rate by a quarter percentage point Tuesday to an all-time low of 2.5%, as markets had widely expected.

In a statement accompanying the decision, RBA Gov. Glenn Stevens cited the Australian currency as a factor, saying the Aussie dollar "has depreciated by around 15% since early April, although it remains at a high level" and that a further easing "would help to foster a rebalancing of growth in the economy."

Stevens also left the door open for further cuts, saying "the inflation outlook could provide some scope to ease policy further, should that be required to support demand."

The Australian economy is threatened by a slowdown in the nation's mining boom, with Stevens having warned last week of a sharp drop in investment in the sector in the coming months.

In his statement Tuesday, Stevens said "the economy has been growing a bit below trend over the past year."



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