US session review 08.07.2013:

Data released (actual, consensus, previous):           

05:45 GMT Switzerland Unemployment Rate s.a (MoM) (Jun) 3.2%    3.2%    3.2%        

06:00 GMT Germany Trade Balance s.a. (May) €14.1B    €17.5B    €17.5B    

06:00 GMT Germany Current Account n.s.a. (May) €11.2B   _     €16.7B    

06:00 GMT Germany Exports (MoM) (May) -2.4%    -0.4%    1.4%      

06:00 GMT Germany Imports (MoM) (May)  1.7%    0.5%    1.2%       

07:15 GMT Switzerland Industrial Production (YoY) (Q1) 0.6%    2.0%    -1.4%    

07:15 GMT Switzerland Industrial Production (QoQ) (Q1) 3.0%   _     1.7%        

08:30 GMT EMU Sentix Investor Confidence (Jul)  -12.6    -10.0    -11.6       

10:00 GMT Germany Industrial Production (May)  -1%    -0.5%     2%

The main currencies a bit rose on Monday, rebounding after a selloff at the end of last week when better-than-expected U.S. jobs data stoked fears the Federal Reserve will soon scale back stimulus.

The International Monetary Fund’s managing director, Christine Lagarde, warned on Sunday that central banks must be careful when they exit expansive monetary policy.

In Portugal, Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho proposed that Paulo Portas, leader of the junior party in the governing coalition, become vice premier. The appointment helps cement a deal to hold the coalition together.

Euro-area finance ministers meeting in Brussels discussed Greece’s progress in meeting the conditions needed to obtain further aid from the International Monetary Fund, European Central Bank and European Commission.

Approval of an agreement at the meeting of euro-area finance ministers in Brussels would allow Greece, which has been unable to tap bond markets since 2010, to obtain a loan of 8.1 billion euros ($10.4 billion).

EURO:

The euro recovered a bit after the announcement later Monday that Greece will receive its next round of financial aid from its international lenders.

Immediate funding crisis averted but we’re no closer to a solution in Greece as reform moves slowly and unemployment remains off the charts.

According to data released by Destatis, year-over-year German Industrial Production decreased by 1% in May, following a 0.9% rise registered the previous month.

On a monthly basis German Industrial Production fell by 1% in May, compared with the 2% increase in April and below forecasts of dropping by 0.5%.

EUR/USD consolidates near $1.2880, recovering from $1.2800 lows (Friday’s and May 17 lows) with a break below widens losses to $1.2745 (Apr 24 lows) and $1.2660 (Dec 13’2012 lows).

Initial resistance is near $1. 2880/90 (Friday’s hourly high), then - at $1.3030 (high Jul.3) and $1.3080 (high Jul.2).

POUND:

The pound gained some grounds against the dollar and euro before a report tomorrow that economists said will show industrial production expanded in May. Industrial output rose 0.2% in May after gaining 0.1% the previous month, according to the median estimate of analysts.

Today Barclays increased UK GDP growth forecast in 2013 to 1,1% from 0,9%.

GBP/USD holds a bit higher $1.4900. Initiial support is still at $1.4850. Below support comes at $1.4820 (Mar 12 lows) and $1.4780 (Feb 28’2010 lows). Initial resistance is near $1.5020 (Friday’s Asia higihs), then - at $1.5130 (Jul 3 lows).

YEN:

The greenback was little changed Monday after Japan’s Finance Ministry said the country’s current-account surplus narrowed in May.

USD/JPY holds below recent highs on Y101.50. Support comes at Y99.90 (Friday’s low) and Y99.50 (Jul 4 low). Resistance is around Y102.20 (channel line from Jun 14), then - at Y103.70 (May 22 high).

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