EUROPEAN session review: ZEW index were dissapointed

Data released (actual, consensus, previous): 

08:30 GMT UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun) 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 

08:30 GMT UK Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jun) -0.2% -0.1% 0.2% 

08:30 GMT UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun) 2.9% 3.0% 2.7% 

08:30 GMT UK DCLG House Price Index (YoY) (May) 2.9% 2.9% 2.6% 

08:30 GMT UK Producer Price Index - Output (YoY) n.s.a (Jun)2.0% 1.9% 1.2% 

08:30 GMT UK PPI Core Output (MoM) n.s.a (Jun) 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 

08:30 GMT UK PPI Core Output (YoY) n.s.a (Jun) 1.0% 1.1% 0.8% 

08:30 GMT UK Producer Price Index - Input (MoM) n.s.a (Jun) 0.2% -0.2% -0.6% 

08:30 GMT UK Producer Price Index - Input (YoY) n.s.a (Jun) 4.2% 4.2% 1.8% 

08:30 GMT UK Producer Price Index - Output (MoM) n.s.a (Jun) 0.1% 0% 0% 

08:30 GMT UK Retail Price Index (YoY) (Jun) 3.3% 3.4% 3.1% 

08:30 GMT UK Retail Price Index (MoM) (Jun) -0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 

09:00 GMT EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun) 1.6% 1.6% 1.4% 

09:00 GMT EMU Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (Jun) 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 

09:00 GMT EMU Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jun) 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 

09:00 GMT EMU Trade Balance n.s.a. (May) €15.2B €11.8B €14.1B Revised from €14.9B 

09:00 GMT EMU Trade Balance s.a. (May) €14.6B €16.2B €15.2B Revised from €16.1B 

09:00 GMT EMU ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Jul) 32.8 31.8 30.6 

09:00 GMT DE ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Jul) 36.3 39.6 38.5 

German ZEW Survey in July decresased to 36.3 from 38.5. In the euro area, Economic Sentiment bettered to 32.8 vs. 30.6. Further data from the bloc showed that consumer prices matched the median, advancing 1.6% YoY and 0.1% on a monthly basis. 

IMF’s Lagarde said old growth risk is uncertainty of euro area recovery. Also she noted that fiscal situation in US, fiscal cliff and debt ceiling also a risk to global growth.

EURO: 

Eurozone Trade surplus n.s.a widened to €15.2 billion in May from €14.1 billion in April, according to data released today by Eurostat. Analysts expected the surplus to narrow to €11.8 billion. 

Trade surplus s.a. narrowed to €14.6 billion in May, from €15.2 billion in April and against forecasts of widening to €16.2 billion. 

ZEW report were dissapinting. 

EUR/USD is testing resistance at $1.3120 (Jul 11 hourly high). A break above $1.3208 (high Jul 11) would expose $1.3255 (high Jun 21). Below $1.3000 next support comes at $1.2966 (low Jul.11) ahead of $1.2949 (high Jul.10) and finally $1.2755 (low Jul.1). 

POUND: 

The pound has interrupted its recovering after the higher UK inflation figures during June. According to experts’ opinion, to really get a stronger move up here we need to see a daily close above 1.5195/1.5200 resistance. 

GBP/USD trades at 1.5093 with the next resistance at 1.5143 (high Jul.16) followed by 1.5173 (38.2% of 1.5753-1.4814) and then 1.5222 (high Jul.11). On the downside, a violation of 1.5028 (low Jul.15) would clear the way to 1.5018 (50% of 1.4814-1.5222) and then 1.5000 (psychological level). 

YEN: 

Yen rose against dollar. 

USD/JPY remains under Y100.00. Support comes at recent lows on YY98.20. Below support comes at Y97.77/70, ahead of Y97.00 (June 25 low). Initial resistance comes at Y99.70-Y100.00, then - at Y101.00 and Y101.50. 

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