четверг, 25 июля 2013 г.

EUROPEAN session review: good EU and UK data couldn’ stop dollar’s rising

Data released (actual, consensus, previous):
08:00 GERMANY IFO - Current Assessment (Jul) 110.1    110.0    109.4        
08:00 GERMANY IFO - Business Climate (Jul) 106.2    106.1    105.9        
08:00 GERMANY IFO - Expectations (Jul) 102.4    102.5    102.5        
08:00 ITALY Consumer Confidence (Jul) 97.3    94.1    95.8    Revised from 95.7    
08:30 UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)Preliminar 0.6%    0.6%    0.3%        
08:30 UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)Preliminar 1.4%    1.4%    0.3%        
08:30 UK Index of Services (3M/3M) (May) 0.8%    0.2%    0.2%    
 
The common currency rose toward the highest level in five weeks versus the dollar after an industry report showed German business confidence jumped for a third month before eased back as US dollar gained accross the board. But later investors fixed the profit from longs and euro fell sharply.
 
EURO:
German business confidence rose for a third month in July. The Ifo institute’s business climate index, based on a survey of 7,000 executives, rose to 106.2 in July from 105.9 in June. Economists predicted an increase to 106.1.

EUR/USD returned above  $1.3200 after weakening towards $1.3160 (yesterday’s lows). Support extends to $1.3140 (channel line from Jul 15). Below support comes at $1.3070/60 (Jul 18 lows). Resistance is near yesterday’s high on $1.3230. A break above would expose $1.3255 (high Jun 21) and $1.3300 (Jun 6 high).
 
POUND:
GBP/USD sharply lower on the release of GDP data in line with expectations. Data showed 0.6% QoQ and 1.4% YoY in line with consensus.
 
GBP/USD tested support at $1.5260. Further support area is around $1.5180 (yesterday’s lows). A break lower widens losses to $1.5150 (Jul 18 lows) and $1.5080 (Jul 17 lows). Above recent highs resistance is placed at $1.5475/80 (Jun 25 high).
 
YEN:
The yen continues to rise versus the dollar.

USD/JPY fell below Y100.00. Next support is near Y99.40 with a break under widens losses to Y98.20 (Jul 11 lows). Resistance is around  Y100.50 (Jul 15 highs), then - at Y101.00 and Y101.50 (Jul 7 highs).
 
DATA AHEAD:
US data at 12:30 GMT include Jun Durable Goods Orders (0.5% expected vs 3.6%) and Initial Jobless Claims.
At 23:30 GMT Japan Jul inflation data is schedule to release.
 
 

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