Data released (actual, consensus, previous):
08:30 GMT UK BBA Mortgage Approvals (Jun) 37.3 38.5 36.1
12:30 GMT Canada Retail Sales (MoM) (May) 1.9%0.3%0.2%
12:30 GMT Canada Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (May) 1.2%0.2%-0.2%
12:55 GMT USA Redbook index (MoM) (Jul 14) 0.9%_0.8%
12:55 GMT USA Redbook index (YoY) (Jul 14) 3.3% _3.0%
13:00 GMT USA Housing Price Index (MoM) (May)0.7%0.8%0.5%
The dollar moved off a one-month low against a basket of
currencies on Tuesday as investors bet that recent declines were too
far, too fast even amid the debate about when the Federal Reserve would
begin to slow stimulus measures.
Analysts said the dollar was still likely to strengthen in
the coming months against currencies such as the euro, sterling and the
yen, as the Fed is expected to be the first major central bank to make
its policy less accommodative.
The dollar has risen 4.5% this year, matching the gain in
the euro and lagging behind only the Swedish Krona among 10
developed-market currencies. The yen is the worst performer, having
dropped 10%
EURO:
Investors are looking to flash Purchasing Managers' Index
data on Wednesday as, despite the euro's recent resilience, worries
about euro zone economies are re-emerging. Analysts said any rebounds in
the euro would probably be sold into.
EUR/USD rallied to $1.3230 and retreated a
bit. A break above would expose $1.3255 (high Jun 21) and $1.3300 (Jun 6
high). Initial support comes at $1.3160 (daily lows), extending to
$1.3140 (channel line from Jul 15). Below support comes at $1.3070/60
(Jul 18 lows).
POUND:
The UK pound held near recent highs Tuesday. The UK data this morning wasn’t as good as expected. In
June Mortgage Approvals the number came in at just 37.3K versus 38.5K
expected, although slightly better than a previous 36.1K. This has been a
gradual reaction amid an otherwise softer dollar.
GBP/USD keeps positive mood after the break
above the key resistance at $1.5300. Closest resistance comes at
$1.5380/00 (Jul 22 highs and 61.8% Fibo of the $1.5750 - $1.4810
decline). Above resistance is placed at $1.5475/80 (Jun 25 high).
Initial support remains at $1.5200 with a break below losses may extend
to $1.5150 (Jul 18 lows) and $1.5080 (Jul 17 lows).
YEN:
The dollar lost some ground against the Japanese yen as
Abe’s advisor Hamada said sales tax rise should be put on hold until
Japan posts two more quarters of annualised 4% growth.
Benefits from Abenomics may be eroded if Japan raises sales tax as scheduled.
Analysts said Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's decisive
upper house election win last weekend would pave the way for pro-growth
fiscal policies and for further Bank of Japan monetary easing, which
would weaken the yen.
The dollar is up more than 15% versus the yen this year.
USD/JPY sits on channel support line from Jun
13 at Y99.30 with a break under widens losses to Y98.20 (Jul 11 lows).
Back above Y100.00 targets Y100.50 (Jul 15 highs), then - at Y101.00 and
Y101.50 (Jul 7 highs).
COMMODITY CURRENCIES
LOONIE: Canadian dollar rose after the Canadian data were released.
Data showed Canadian retail sales expanded 1.9% on a
monthly basis during May, beating forecasts at 0.3% and up from April’s
0.2% gain. Excluding the automobile sector, sales also increased 1.2%
inter-month vs. the median at 0.2% and April’s 0.3% contraction.
DATA AHEAD:
From 06:58 GMT will 08:30 GMT France, Germany, EMU and UK reports preliminary Markit Manufacturing PMI for July.
At 14:00 GMT Jun New Home Sales come with 0.485M expected after 0.476M.
At 14:30 GMT EIA Crude Oil Stocks change releases oil stocks for the Jul 19 week.
At 21:00 GMT the focus will be on RBNZ Interest Rate Decision with 2.5% expected.
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