Data released (actual, consensus, previous):
08:30 GMT UK Mortgage Approvals (Jun) 57.667K 59.500K 58.071K
08:30 GMT UK GBP Consumer Credit (Jun) £0.5B _ £0.8B
08:30 GMT UK GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (Jun) 0.1% 0.2% -0.1%
08:30 GMT UK GBP Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) (Jun) £1.0B £1.4B £0.5B
The yen rose for a third day after Japanese retail sales
fell and Chinese industrial companies reported slowing profits, boosting
demand for haven assets.
In China, industrial companies reported slower profit
growth and Premier Li Keqiang announced a nationwide audit of government
borrowings amid concern bad debts will weigh down the world’s
second-largest economy.
EURO:
No changes are expected from the this week’s ECB meeting’s
outcome at 11:45 GMT, Thursday. ECB Monetary policy statement and press
conference will be the main focus.
EUR/USD sets stable under $1.3300, with
closest support coming at $1.3255 (high Jun 21). Below $1.3160 initial
support is around $1.3140 and $1.3070/60 (Jul 18 lows). Above $1.3300
(Jun 6 high) gains will extend to and $1.3325.
POUND:
This week the focus will be at BoE meeting results on
Thursday with Asset Purchase Facility is expected to remain at £375K,
while key lending rate is set to left unchange at 0.5%.
GBP/USD erased below recent highs on $1.5416
(initial resistance). Initial support remains at Friday’s lows on
$1.5350, then - at $1.5180 (Tuesday’s lows) with a break lower widens
losses to $1.5150 (Jul 18 lows) and $1.5080 (Jul 17 lows). Above
$1.5416 resistance is near $1.5480 (Jun 25 highs).
YEN:
The yen rallied after BoJ’s head comments.
In a speech at a meeting of the Research Institute of
Japan, BoJ Kuroda said he continues to expect a moderate recovery in
Japan going forward, while he remains confident that the country is on
track to beat deflation, although time will be needed to reach the 2%
price level, without specifying a concrete date.
Kuroda reiterated that the BOJ easing has not intention to
depreciate the currency, adding that wage raises is a critical component
to achieve sustained inflation. On the QE practices, Kuroda said it is
working well to end deflation.
Kuroda hinted that while fiscal consolidation is necessary,
Japan's economy faces its biggest risk from outside the country, saying
they are closely monitoring the situation in China to see if they
achieve a 'soft landing. Kuroda also said the CPI growth rate, capex
will gradually accelerate. On the sales tax, Kuroda said don't think
raising the tax in two steps will hurt economic growth.
Meanwhile, official data released before the stock market’s
open showed Japan’s retail sales climbed 1.6% in June from the year-ago
month, though just short of forecasts.
USD/JPY remains above Y97.65/50 (50% Fibo
from Y93.80 - Y101.50, also the lower bound of the channel from Jul 7
and session lows). If break under support comes at Y96.75 (61.8%).
Initial resistance is near session highs at Y98.30, above - at Y98.80/90
(ex-support). Further resistance is around Y100.47 (Thursday’s high).
DATA AHEAD:
At 10:00 GMT CBI reports Distributive Trades Survey for July.
US data include Jun Pending Home Sales at 14:00 GMT with -0.1% m/m expected after 6.7% in May.
Japan concludes Monday with Jun Unemployment Rate and preliminary Industrial Production data.
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