Data released (actual, consensus, previous):
01:00 GMT China NBS Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 50.1 50.1 50.8
01:45 GMT China HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 48.2 48.3 49.2
07:30 GMT Switzerland SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index (Jun) 51.9 51.8 52.2
07:43 GMT Italy Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 49.1 47.8 47.3
07:48 GMT France Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 48.4 48.3 46.4
07:53 GMT Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 48.6 48.7 49.4
07:58 GMT EMU Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 48.8 48.7 48.3
08:28 GMT UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 52.5 51.5 51.5
08:30 GMT UK Consumer Credit (May) £0.7B £0.600B £0.6B
08:30 GMT UK M4 Money Supply (YoY) (May) -0.1% _ -0.1%
08:30 GMT UK M4 Money Supply (MoM) (May) -0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
08:30 GMT UK Mortgage Approvals (May) 58.242K 55.05K 54.354K
08:30 GMT UK Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) £1B £1.4B £1.4B
09:00 GMT EMU Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY) (Jun) Preliminar 1.2% _ 1.2%
09:00 GMT EMU Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun) Preliminar 1.6% 1.6% 1.4%
09:00 GMT EMU Unemployment Rate (May) 12.1% 12.3% 12.0%
The dollar gained for a third day to its strongest in more than three weeks versus the yen before a U.S. report forecast to show manufacturing rebounded, adding to signs the Federal Reserve may begin to trim bond purchases.
Two separate surveys in China showed a further loss of momentum in factory activity. The reading of the official manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for June dropped to 50.1 from 50.8 in May. Another survey by HSBC showed the monthly PMI falling to 48.2 in June from 49.2 in May.
EURO:
Demand for the euro was limited before the ECB’s policy
meeting. ECB President Mario Draghi signaled last week that policy will
remain accommodative. The central bank cut the key refinancing rate to a
record-low 0.5 percent in May after six quarters of economic
contraction in the currency bloc.
Data released showed the Eurozone Unemployment Rate
increased to 12.1% in May, from 12% in April. This result is more
positive than forecasts of a rise to 12.3%.
Eurozone PMI Manufacturing grew to 48.8 points in June,
from 48.3 points in May, according to data released. Market consensus
pointed to slightly less increase to 48.7.
EUR/USD holds above $1.3000 with initial
support comes at recent lows on $1.2980. Below support comes at $1.2960
(Apr 24 and Jun 3 lows) и $1.2840 (May 29 lows). Key support remains at
$1.2800 (May 17 low). Resistance comes at $1.3100 (Friday’s high). Above
gains may extend to $1.3160 (Jun 20 lows), then - at $1.3255/60
(Friday’s high) and $1.3300 (Jun 6 high).
POUND:
The pound reversed when UK activity surprised to the upside.
PMI came in as 52.5 beating expectations of 51.5. Mortgage
Approvals for May 58.242k vrs expectations of 55.05k. Net Lending to
Individuals was lower at £1b vrs £1.4b consensus.
GBP/USD remains under pressure, despite the
recovery from Friday’s lows on $1.5160 (initial support). Below losses
may widen to $1.5140 (May 24 high and May 31 lows), then - to $1.5000
(May 29 lows). Initial resistance comes at Friday’s high on $1.5280,
then - at $1.5340 (Thursday’s high), then - at $1.5400 (Wednesday’s
high), then - at $1.5450/60 and $1.5530 (Jun 21 high).
YEN:
The U.S. dollar rose above ¥99 and the Bank of Japan’s
quarterly tankan survey showed a sharp improvement in sentiment at large
businesses.
The Bank of Japan’s quarterly tankan survey showed an
improvement in sentiment at both large manufacturers and
non-manufacturers, with the former showing positive sentiment for the
first time since mid 2011, risin to 10 points versus -1 earlier.
USD/JPY tests Y99.60/65 after breaking above
the Y98.80 resistance (50% Fibo of the Y103.80- Y93.80 decline). Above
resistance comes at Y99.90/00 (61.8%). Below Y98.80 support comes at
Y97.20, with a break under targets last Friday’s lows near Y96.90.
DATA AHEAD:
US data include May Construction Spending at 14:00 GMT with
0.7% expected after 0.4%. The same time Jun ISM Manufacturing PMI comes
(median 50.1 after 49.0).
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