US session review: strong US data support the dollar

Data released (actual, consensus, previous):   

06:45 GMT France Business Climate (Jun)  93    93    92        

08:00 GMT Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) (Apr)   -0.1%   _     -0.3%        

08:00 GMT Italy Retail Sales n.s.a (YoY) (Apr)  -2.9%   _     -3.2%       

08:22 GMT Greece Current Account (YoY) (Apr)  €-1.187B   _     €-1.285B        

08:30 GMT UK BBA Mortgage Approvals (May)  36.1K    33.1K    32.2K

10:00 GMT CBI Distributive Trades Survey, June 1      -1        -11

13:00 GMT US  Housing Price Index (MoM) (May)    0.7%        1.5%    

13:00 GMT US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) (Apr)    12.1%    10.6%    10.9%        

14:00 GMT US  Consumer Confidence (Jun)    81.4    75.4    74.3    

14:00  GMT US New Home Sales (MoM) (May)    0.476M    0.462M    0.466M

US dollar gained against the main rivals as U.S. data on durable goods, new-home sales and confidence increased more than economists had projected.

Orders for U.S. durable goods rose more than forecast in May. Bookings for goods meant to last at least three years climbed 3.6%, after increasing a revised 3.6% the prior month, the Commerce Department reported today in Washington. The median forecast of economists called for a 3% increase.

EURO:

Greece PASOK’s Venizelos confirmed as deputy PM. He has the joint role of deputy premier and Foreign Minister in the reshuffle officially announced last night, with New Democracy’s Mitsotakis appointed as the Administrative Reform Minister and Stournaras remaining in his position as Finance Minister.

The new cabinet will be sworn in by President Papoulias today.

ECB's Nowotny Sees Slight Euro-Zone Recovery in 2014

According to Citi EUR/USD is targeting 1.2750. ANZ think EUR/USD slide is imminent.

Interim rebounds should struggle to regain 1.3200-50 and then be followed by another frustrating slide through 1.3000 in a position flipping decline to test 1.2700 within the context of a broader 1.25-1.37 range. “The head and shoulders pattern may be mentioned again, but not much should transpire from this.” Riddell adds.

EUR/USD has eased to the ysterday’s lows on $1.3060 with initial resistance comes at $1.3160 (Jun 20 lows), then - at $1.3255/60 (Friday’s high) and $1.3300 (Jun 6 high). Below $1.3060 support comes at $1.3030 (61.8% Fibo of the $1.2790 - $1.3415 rise) and $1.2960 (Apr 24 and Jun 3 lows).

EUR/JPY has been edging lower for the past three days but technical support should spark a rally to 131.00 according to analysts at Credit Suisse. They cite the 55-day moving average as support.

They warn that a break below support at 127.05 could spark a further retracement to 124.95/44.

POUND:

The pound remains bid on the release of a better expected set of Mortgage Approvals that arrived as 36.1k vrs a consensus for 33.1k for May.

CBI Distributive Trades Survey has shown indicator rose 1 versus -11 in May.

GBP/USD retreats from session highs as US dollar gains accross the board, but in general trades above yesterday’s lows on $1.5340 (support now). Below support comes at $1.5280 (Jun 4 lows), then - near $1.5140 (May 31 lows) and $1.5000 (May 29 lows). Initial resistance comes at $1.5450/60 (Friday’s hourly highs), then - at $1.5530 (Jun 21 high), stronger - near $1.5680 (Jun 19 highs).

YEN:

Yen is consolidates within the former range.

USD/JPY holds below the  Y98.80 resistance (50% Fibo of the Y103.80- Y93.80 decline). Above resistance comes at Y99.90/00 (61.8%). Initial support comes at Y97.20, with a break under targets Friday’s lows near Y96.90.

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