Whilst the market will be looking for clues in Bernanke’s statement to
give a concrete steer on the timing and scale of the taper, he may point
to a substantial jobs market improvement as a precursor to any action.
Our own view (close to broad expectations) is the 18 September Fed
meeting is most likely, but with only a modest taper likely at that time
and with purchases continuing into 2014. Bernanke will also have to
answer questions relating to President Obama’s recent TV comments on
Bernanke’s tenure at the Fed, which will provide another dimension to
the press conference adding a further element of market uncertainty over
the long-term Fed policy stance.
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