понедельник, 24 июня 2013 г.

FOREX weekly review (17.06 – 21.06.2013)

The dollar continues to rise. This is the biggest weekly gain versus the yen since 2009 and added versus other main currencies, having surged after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke outlined the case for U.S. stimulus to be withdrawn as the economy keeps improving.


The Federal Open Market Committee left the monthly pace of bond purchases unchanged at $85 billion, saying that “downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market” have diminished. Policy makers raised their growth forecasts for next year to a range of 3% to 3.5% and reduced their outlook for unemployment to as low as 6.5%.

Accordoing to experts' opinion, the Fed has more confidence in the momentum of the economy, there’s more distance between us and the financial crisis, and now is the right time to just start thinking about the normalization of policy. It’s trying to change market psychology to be more reliant on the real economy and on the outlook for company earnings.

Investors also were absorbing remarks from St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard, who explained on Friday why he voted against the latest Fed policy decision.

Bullard said the decision by the Federal Reserve to lay out its plans to taper bond buys was badly timed. The Fed should have waited “for more tangible signs” of economic improvement and a halt in the downward direction for inflation.

A Bloomberg survey following the FOMC shows the consensus estimate is for the Fed to begin tapering in September by cutting back by $20B/month to $65B/month. The survey shows the consensus is for bond buying to halt completely in June 2014.

US data showed existing U.S. home sales rose 4.2% to an annual rate of 5.18 million in May, topping expectations for a pace of around 5 million and the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index came in stronger than expected.

Earlier, data showed U.S. weekly jobless claims rose more than expected. U.S. jobless claims for the week ended June 15 rose by 18,000 to a seasonally adjusted 354,000, more than expectations of a rise to 340,000. The weaker-than-expected claims data gave more credence for the oil selloff.



EURO
A rebound by the euro lost steam.
Greece has moved back into the spotlight, with talks among the government’s coalition leaders stoking concerns over the durability of the government due to controversy surrounding the closure of state-run broadcaster ERT.

Greece’s Democratic Left party said it would pull out of the coalition government amid disagreement with Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’ abrupt decision to close the state broadcaster, ERT, last week.

Adding to worries about Greece, the International Monetary Fund threatened to suspend aid payments to the struggling country, unless euro-zone leaders move to plug a gap of 3 billion to 4 billion euros ($4 billion to $5.3 billion) in the country’s rescue program. The report said the gap stemmed from central banks refusing to roll over Greek bonds and that Athens wasn’t to blame.

Also the Eurozone officials said they  won’t revise Cyprus bail out conditions after requests from the  Cypriot President Anastasiades yesterday for a complete revamp of the Eur 10 bln bailout, where the country economy and banking system have been severely damaged, by the conditions imposed on the island.

The purchasing manager’s indexes for the euro zone showed the region’s downturn eased in June. The composite output PMI reading climbed to a 15-month high of 48.9 from 47.7 in May, exceeding analyst expectations. The manufacturing PMI rose to 48.7 from 48.3 in May, marking the highest level in 16 months.


POUND
UK pound resumed bearish move. According to report, Public Sector Net Borrowing was £10.535B in May versus £6.623B in April.

Earlier the U.K. pound rose as retail sales including fuel rose by 2.1% last month after slipping by 1.3% in April.

The MPC minutes have shown once again the same voting pattern to keep interest rate intact at 0.5%, 9-0, and 6-3 in favour of leaving the asset purchase programme unchanged at £375 billion, with King, Fisher and Miles advocating for an increase to £400 billion.


YEN
The yen sharply fell versus the US dollar.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Wednesday during a semi-annual parliamentary hearing in Tokyo that the central bank would maintain its current monetary policy until a sharp change occurs in the economy. Even though the situation of the economy remains uncertain, the BoJ governor sees it starting to recover gradually in the nearest future while financial markets return to stabilization.


COMMODITY CURRENCIES

LOONIE: The U.S. unit jumped 0.9% versus its northern counterpart Canadian dollars after Canada reported weaker-than-expected inflation and retail sales data.
The loonie surged through the 2013 high of C$1.0421 after soft inflation data threatened to keep the Bank of Canada on the sidelines longer. Inflation rose 0.7% in May from last year, short of expectations for a 0.9% rise. The Canadian dollar has fallen for 6 consecutive days.

Комментариев нет:

Отправить комментарий

http://trendsmarkets.com