EUROPEAN session review: currencies reduced its’ gains

Data released (actual, consensus, previous):                   

06:00    DE    EUR    Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (May)    -0.1%        -0.4%        

06:00    DE    EUR    Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (May)    -0.4%        -0.2%        

07:15    CH    CHF    Producer and Import Prices (YoY) (May)    -0.2%    0.3%    -0.1%        

07:15    CH    CHF    Producer and Import Prices (MoM) (May)    -0.3%    0.1%    0.2%        

08:00    EMU    EUR    ECB Monthly Report     

09:00    GR    EUR    Unemployment Rate (QoQ) (Q1)    27.4%        26.0%    

Main currencies reduced its’ gains after the World Bank cut its global growth forecast for this year after emerging markets from China to Brazil slowed more than projected, while budget cuts and slumping investor confidence deepened Europe’s contraction.

The World Bank cut its global growth forecast for this year to 2.2% from 2.4% projected in January, the bank said in a report released yesterday in Washington. China’s growth outlook was reduced to 7.7% from 8.4%, according to the report.

The slowdown in China’s growth may extend into the third quarter, the China Securities Journal said today. Uncertainties over investment growth will increase as urban development may be slower than expected, according to the newspaper.

EURO:

ECB Monthly report details:

Will closely watch data, monetary policy will remain accommodative as along as necessary

Inflation expectations are well anchored

Risk for price stability outlook are broadly balanced

Eurozone price pressures will remain subdued

ECB’s accomodative policy and market calm, should foster recovery

EUR/USD has tested $1.3380 and retreated. Initial resistance comes at $1.3400 (Jan 14 highs) and $1.3460 (channel resistance line from May 29). Initial support is around $1.3320, below - at $1.3260 (Asian lows) and $1.3214 (channel support line).

POUND:

There is caution towards excessive GBP strength may yet persist however, with the BOE’s Fisher indicating that the economic recovery may take longer than anticipated.

GBP/USD is trading at $1.5664, a bit lower resistance at $1.5664. Break under overnight lows on $1.5630 targets channel support line from May 29 at $1.5610. Below losses may widen to $1.5520 (Tuesday’s lows).  Above  $1.5700 resistance comes  near $1.5760 (61.8% Fibo of the $1.6340 - $1.4820 decline).

YEN:

The yen surged, strengthening beyond 94 per dollar for the first time in two months, as Japanese investors cut holdings of overseas bonds and stocks for a fourth week and the World Bank lowered its global growth forecast.

USD/JPY tested support at Y93.50 (Mar 25 lows). next support - at Y92.50 (Apr 2 lows). Initial resistance is placed at Y95.00,  then -  Y97.00 (daily highs) with a break above targets Y98.30 (channel resistance line from May 29).

DATA AHEAD:

US data include 12:30 GMT Initial Jobless Claims and Retail Sales (MoM) (May) (0.4% vs 0.1%).

BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes will come out at 23:50GMT

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