EUROPEAN session review (24.06.2013): markets consolidates

Data released (actual, consensus, previous):   

08:00 GMT Germany IFO - Business Climate (Jun)  105.9    105.9    105.7         

08:00 GMT Germany IFO - Current Assessment (Jun)  109.4    109.6    110.0         

08:00 GMT Germany IFO - Expectations (Jun)  102.5    102.0    101.6         

08:00 GMT Italy Consumer Confidence (Jun)  95.7    86.3    86.4

The markets are consolidating after recent rally in the wake of comments last Wednesday by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that the U.S. could slow its monetary stimulus this year if the economy continued to improved. 

On Monday Goldman Sachs became the latest investment bank to downgrade its forecasts on China growth for this year and next, citing tighter financial conditions. In a note dated June 23, Goldman said it now expects real gross domestic product growth at 7.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2013, from 7.8% previously. It expects GDP growth of 7.4% and 7.7% for 2013 and 2014, respectively, from 7.8% and 8.4%, previously.

EURO:

The euro was steady on the release of an IFO number, which came pretty much in line with expectations for Germany. German IFO – Business Climate (June) came in at 105.9 vs consensus 105.7. 

EUR/USD continues to probe $1.3100 (50% Fibo of the $1.2790 - $1.3415 rise). Break under widens losses to $1.3030 (61.8%) and $1.2960 (Apr 24 and Jun 3 lows). Initial resistance placed near $1.3160 (Jun 20 lows), then - at $1.3255/60 (Friday’s high) and $1.3300 (Jun 6 high).

POUND:

The pound continues to slide. 

GBP/USD remains under pressure. Below support comes at $1.5280 (Jun 4 lows), below - near $1.5140 (May 31 lows) and $1.5000 (May 29 lows). Initial resistance comes at $1.5450/60 (Friday’s hourly highs), then - at $1.5530 (Jun 21 high), stronger - near $1.5680 (Jun 19 highs).

YEN:

The yen compensated morning losses but stay quiet. 

USD/JPY holds lower the Y98.80 resistance (50% Fibo of the Y103.80- Y93.80 decline). Above resistance comes at Y99.90/00 (61.8%). Initial support comes at Y98.00, with a break under targets Friday’s lows near Y96.90.

DATA AHEAD:

There is no key economic data for today, but in general this week weill be quite interesting, bringing GDP data from US and others. 

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