среда, 12 июня 2013 г.

ASIA session review: pound higher after UK data

Data released (actual, consensus, previous):                
06:00    DE    EUR    Consumer Price Index (YoY) (May)    1.5%    1.5%    1.1%        
06:00    DE    EUR    Consumer Price Index (MoM) (May)    0.4%    0.4%    -0.5%        
06:00    DE    EUR    Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) (May)    0.3%    0.3%    -0.5%        
06:00    DE    EUR    Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) (May)    1.6%    1.7%    1.1%
08:30    UK    GBP    Claimant Count Change (May)    -8.6K    -5.0K    -11.8K
08:30    UK    GBP    Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Apr)    0.9%    0.7%    0.8%       
08:30    UK    GBP    Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (Apr)    1.3%    0.3%    0.6%
08:30    UK    GBP    Claimant Count Rate (May)    4.5%        4.5%        
08:30    UK    GBP    ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (Apr)    7.8%    7.8%    7.8%        
09:00    EMU    EUR    Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Apr)    -0.6%    -1.2%    -1.4%
09:00    EMU    EUR    Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (Apr)    0.4%    -0.2%    0.9%

Japan’s currency weakened for the third time in four days against the greenback after government data showed a bigger-than-expected decline in factory orders, adding to the case for additional central-bank stimulus.



Orders fell 8.8% in April from March after rising for two months, the Cabinet office said. The median forecast of economists was for an 8.1% drop.

The euro rose to the highest level in 3 1/2 months versus the dollar before European Central Bank executive board member Benoit Coeure speaks.

ECB’s Asmussen: said the OMT aims only to curb unjustified peaks in interest rates;
There are no dangers of inflation as a result of OMT, purchases will be sterilized;
Positive effects are already visible;
OMT is not government financing;
Bond buys on secondary market.

The dollar was supported before tomorrow’s U.S. retail sales report, which economists forecast will show 0.4% growth in May, following a 0.1%  gain in April.


EURO:

Industrial Production in Eurozone in  April  -0.6% vs  -1.2% expected and -1.4% in the previous period.  
 
EUR/USD has tested $1.3320 and retreated, but generally holds higher.  A breakout of $1.3319 (high Feb.25) would open the door to $1.3343 (61.8% of Feb-Apr slide). Initial support is around $1.3230, with a break under $1.3190 may widen losses  to $1.3108 (MA100d) ahead of $1.3075 (low Jun 6) and then $1.3053 (low Jun.5). 
Offers: 1.3310/20, 1.3350.
Bids 1.3250/60, 1.3180/00, 1.3150/60, 1.3130.


POUND:

The jobless rate in the UK was expected to stay put at 7.8% and it did so, while the more focused bit of data, the claimant change fell from the previous numbers of -11.8k to -8.6k against a consensus of -5.0k, which is over all bullish for the pound given expectation could be for a higher consumer spending count in the long run benefiting economic growth.

GBP/USD keeps positive mood. Initial resistance comes at $1.5680, extending to $1.5700. Break under overnight lows on $1.5520 targets support at $1.5500 and then - $1.5420 (38.2% Fibo of the $1.5000 - $1.5680 rise) and $1.5370 (Jun 3 high). 
Offers: 1.5675,1.5685,1.5695,1.5700, 1.5720,1.5750,1.5770,1.5790
Bids: 1.5635,1.5610,1.5600,1.5550,1.5510,1.5500


YEN:

The yen dropped against all of its major peers as traders speculated yesterday’s advance versus the dollar, the biggest in three years, was too rapid given expectations for further stimulus from the Bank of Japan.

USD/JPY is back to Y97.00 in Asia after yesterday’s selloff as Bank of Japan announced its rate decision. Initial resistance comes at Y99.00 (channel line from May 29), extending to Y99.30 (yesterday’s high, also 50% Fibo of the Y103.80 - Y95.00 decline). Break above targets Y100.40 (61.8% and Jun 4 highs).
Initial support is near Y96.50 (European lows). Below dollar may retreat to Y95.00.
Offers: 97.10,97.20,97.30,97.50,97.80,98.00,98.10,98.40,98.50
Bids: 96.70,96.50,96.30,96.10,96.00,95.50


DATA AHEAD:
Germany Constitutional court ruling on ECB bond buying is expected at this very time.
At 21:00 GMT RBNZ Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement  will finish the day.


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