ASIA session review (24.06.2013): Dollar marches higher against other majors

Data released (actual, consensus, previous):   

08:00 GMT Germany IFO - Business Climate (Jun)  105.9    105.9    105.7        

08:00 GMT Germany IFO - Current Assessment (Jun)  109.4    109.6    110.0        

08:00 GMT Germany IFO - Expectations (Jun)  102.5    102.0    101.6        

08:00 GMT Italy Consumer Confidence (Jun)  95.7    86.3    86.4

The U.S. dollar extended its winning streak Monday.

The gain represented the latest leg of a rally in the wake of comments last Wednesday by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that the U.S. could slow its monetary stimulus this year if the economy continued to improved.

Crédit Agricole analysts said the dollar’s gains was build on capital inflows, a trend that they said would likely continue.

On Monday Goldman Sachs became the latest investment bank to downgrade its forecasts on China growth for this year and next, citing tighter financial conditions. In a note dated June 23, Goldman said it now expects real gross domestic product growth at 7.5% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2013, from 7.8% previously. It expects GDP growth of 7.4% and 7.7% for 2013 and 2014, respectively, from 7.8% and 8.4%, previously.

EURO:

The euro was steady on the release of an IFO number, which came pretty much in line with expectations for Germany.

German IFO – Business Climate (June) came in at 105.9 vs consensus 105.7. The IFO - Current Assessment (Jun) came in at 109.4, slightly down on consensus 109.5 and finally the IFO -Expectations (Jun) arrived at 102.5, slightly up vs 102.00 consensus.

EUR/USD continues to probe $1.3100 (50% Fibo of the $1.2790 - $1.3415 rise). Break under widens losses to $1.3030 (61.8%) and $1.2960 (Apr 24 and Jun 3 lows). Initial resistance placed near $1.3160 (Jun 20 lows), then - at $1.3255/60 (Friday’s high) and $1.3300 (Jun 6 high).

POUND:

The pound tries to recover.

GBP/USD printed lows at $1.5360 and remains under pressure. Below support comes at $1.5280 (Jun 4 lows), below - near $1.5140 (May 31 lows) and $1.5000 (May 29 lows). Initial resistance comes at $1.5450/60 (Friday’s hourly highs), then - at $1.5530 (Jun 21 high), stronger - near $1.5680 (Jun 19 highs).

YEN:

The dollar’s gain was especially pronounced against Asian currencies, with the greenback rising against the Japanese yen.

The yen extended its decline and the ruling party won a sweeping victory in Tokyo elections.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s sweeping victory in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly elections, coming a month ahead of the key polls for the upper house of the parliament, also aided the advance.

USD/JPY holds a bit lower the Y98.80 resistance (50% Fibo of the Y103.80- Y93.80 decline). Above resistance comes at Y99.90/00 (61.8%). Initial support comes at Y98.00, with a break under targets Friday’s lows near Y96.90.

DATA AHEAD:

There is no key economic data for today, but in general this week weill be quite interesting, bringing GDP data from US and others.

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